Newsletter #1 – The Autism Tipping Point
The Autism Tipping Point
3 Trends Changing Everything
When my husband, Charles, who is a physician, first mentioned the possibility that our firstborn son, Lucas, who was 21 months old at the time, might have autism…
I told him he was wrong.
I can still picture us being in the family room of our old house in early 1998 – just two months after our second son, Spencer, was born. I stared at the blue carpet while Lucas sat in silence on our plaid sofa when my husband abruptly dropped the A bomb. I was completely caught off guard and shocked.
I argued with Charles that Lucas had some words and that he was warm and cuddly with us. Even though I didn’t have any idea what autism looked like in a baby or toddler (and this was pre-Facebook and before Google Search was available), the thought that there was anything wrong with Lucas – let alone something as serious as autism – never crossed my mind before.
In that moment, I told Charles that Lucas didn’t have autism and that I never, ever wanted to hear the word autism again.
I then stuck my head in the sand, went into a deep state of denial, and spent more than a year hoping and praying that Lucas would be okay and that the curtain would not fall on my otherwise normal life.
But Lucas did indeed have autism, and my denial didn’t help him or me.
What I didn’t realize in that moment was that this diagnosis would completely change the course of my life. I went from working as an RN and being a confused, overwhelmed mom—who didn’t want to hear the word autism—to becoming a doctoral-level behavior analyst and best-selling author of two books translated into dozens of languages.
It’s ironic – because now, decades later, I read, write, and say the word autism thousands of times each day.
Wearing so many hats for so long, I have a lot of ideas on the topic of autism.
While some of my ideas may seem controversial, everything here in Newsletter issue #001 and in future issues comes from a sincere place of wanting to help each child reach his or her fullest potential – whatever that may be.
In addition, I want to help the field of autism move forward towards hope and happiness.
Unlike my previous and upcoming how-to videos and blogs (on topics such as teaching kids to talk, potty training, and reducing tantrums), these once-a-month newsletters will be longer, more meaty, and filled with new ideas on advancing the field of autism.
This new series is geared toward parents who have a child with autism who are also worried about siblings and future children, and those who are concerned about the societal impact of autism, not just their own day-to-day struggles.
These newsletters are also for professionals in the field of autism who are at the forefront of diagnosing, treating, investing in, and researching the disorder (as well as other closely associated disorders like ADHD, which can show up in a similar way as early delays in toddlerhood).
Whether you have a parental, medical, biomedical, research, business and/or behavioral lens on the topic of autism, this newsletter is for you.
Today we’re going to cover three mega trends that I believe are the biggest forces completely reshaping autism.
Mega Trend #1: The Explosion of Autism (and other Developmental Disorders…)
In the first chapter of my newest book, Turn Autism Around, I include the chart below that I developed outlining the dramatic surge in autism from the 1970s to today.
In the 1970s, autism was thought to occur in 1 in 10,000 children. Today, that number is 1 in 31. (And by the way, that’s up from 1 in 54 as recent as 2020 when I finished writing my book).
While many point to increased awareness, improved screening, reduced stigma, and insurance-driven diagnoses as the primary reasons for rising autism rates, the data tells a more complex story.
Sibling studies show that roughly 1 in 5 younger siblings of children with autism are also diagnosed, highlighting a strong biological component.
At the same time, prevalence rates continue to climb across multiple datasets. Taken together, this suggests that we are not just getting better at identifying autism—we are seeing a real increase that cannot be ignored.
The costs of autism are also staggering, with an estimated $1.4M – $2.4M+ per person for education, treatment, and care during their lifetime.
But these numbers don’t fully capture the day-to-day financial reality for families. Many parents—whether their child has a formal diagnosis or not—are paying out of pocket for therapies, specialized or private schooling, and one-on-one support. Some hire aides just so their child can participate in camps or community activities, while others invest in extensive in-home support to manage challenges like picky eating, sleep, and potty issues.
The financial burden is not only significant—it is ongoing, unpredictable, and often overwhelming.
And, when you include ADHD, speech delays, and learning differences, the CDC suggests that:
About 1 in 6 (17%) of US children aged 3–17 years of age have a developmental disability.
Think about that. One in six kids.
Mega Trend #2: More Confusion and Complexity Than Ever Before
If Mega Trend #1 is the explosion in autism rates and costs, Mega Trend #2 is the explosion of confusion.
Today, the autism space is more crowded, louder, and more divided than ever before. Parents, professionals, researchers, and self-advocates are all talking—but often saying very different things.
When my son Lucas was diagnosed in the late 1990s, access to services was extremely limited, but the direction felt more straightforward. Families fought hard to get therapy, especially ABA, often paying out of pocket. The common goal was to help their children improve as much as possible with intensive ABA therapy – that was and still is the most proven treatment for children with autism.
Today, we have more awareness, more diagnoses, and more access to therapy paid for by insurance —but far less clarity.
Autism is now defined as a broad spectrum, ranging from fully conversational adults living independently to individuals with significant support needs.
Diagnoses often overlap with ADHD, speech delays, mental health conditions, and/or intellectual disabilities, leaving many parents unsure of whether to pursue a diagnosis for their young child with delays or what to do next.
At the same time, the narratives surrounding autism have become increasingly polarized. Some voices, including mine, emphasize autism as a serious developmental disability requiring early action to turn things around as much as possible, while others frame it as a difference or even a “gift” that should be celebrated – not treated or changed.
The rise of media and social platforms has added fuel to the confusion.
Parents are influenced not just by professionals, but by celebrities who have children with autism or who share their own later-in-life diagnoses.
Recently, I was interviewed by Laura Clery, a social media influencer and mom of two, including Alfie, a 7-year-old with autism.
After Alfie’s diagnosis at the age of 2, Laura read my book, watched some of my Youtube videos, and reached out. We had a few calls and I went to their home for one day more than 4 years ago.
Until now, for obvious confidentiality reasons, I never disclosed that I met Laura or helped her family.
But this changed several weeks ago, when Laura talked about me on her podcast with another guest, and we reconnected for a few calls, including this podcast interview.
With over 25 million followers across Laura Clery’s platforms, the topic of our interview: Is ABA Harmful or Helpful? illustrates the confusion in the autism space and is already getting a lot of traction.
I can’t wait to discuss this topic more in the next newsletter.
Shows like The Good Doctor and Love on the Spectrum tend to spotlight more verbal individuals—stories that are compelling and hopeful, but not representative of the full spectrum. In many cases, this creates a false sense that things will simply work themselves out.
At the same time, the medical and scientific conversation has expanded rapidly. Many children, including Lucas, have underlying issues such as autoimmune challenges, mitochondrial dysfunction, and nervous system dysregulation.
Parents are left trying to make sense of a growing list of theories and treatments in addition to or instead of ABA—biomedical, immune, gut-brain, environmental. All of this is layered on top of cultural and political divides about whether and how autism should be treated.
All of this contributes to a level of confusion that simply did not exist a decade ago.
And when parents are confused, they hesitate. They wait—like I did—and cross their fingers and hope.
They hear phrases like “just wait and see,” “he’s just a boy,” or “he’s so high functioning – he will be fine.” And without a clear framework for action, valuable time is almost always lost.
At the same time, research continues to show something incredibly important: early outcomes are more changeable than we once believed.
A 2023 study following over 200 children found that nearly 40% of those diagnosed between ages one and three no longer met the autism criteria by early school age. I covered this study on my podcast because findings like these reinforce what many clinicians and parents have seen for years—early trajectories are not fixed.
And yet, despite this, families are navigating an environment filled with conflicting information and increasing debate about what autism is and what should be done about it.
All of this gets rolled into one overwhelming picture of confusion and complexity.
Mega Trend #3: AI Is Creating Great Opportunities and Some Risks
If Mega Trend #1 is the explosion in rates, and Mega Trend #2 is the explosion of confusion, then Mega Trend #3 is where I see the greatest opportunity—and some real risks.
AI is about to fundamentally change the way autism is researched, identified, and understood.
And yes, it can feel like freight trains are barreling down the tracks.
But the goal isn’t to watch the crash—it’s to redirect the trains before they collide.
For decades, autism diagnosis has relied on behavioral observation, subjective interpretation, and long waitlists. Research has been slow, fragmented, and siloed, leaving parents to connect the dots on their own.
That model is starting to shift.
We are now seeing early but powerful examples of how artificial intelligence can detect patterns that were previously invisible.
One new study published just weeks ago in Communications Medicine examined oxidative stress in red blood cells. The sample size was small—27 children with autism and 31 neurotypical children—but the results were striking. Using hyperspectral imaging and AI modeling, researchers correctly classified autism in approximately 93% of cases based on oxidative stress markers from a simple blood sample.
This is not ready for clinical use and needs replication. But it points to something incredibly important: the possibility of objective, biological signals that could play a major role in earlier identification very soon.
Also in 2025, a much larger study out of South Korea, published in npj Digital Medicine, analyzed home videos from over 500 toddlers ages 18 to 48 months—about half with autism and half typically developing. Parents recorded three simple one-minute tasks: response to name, imitation, and ball play.
Using deep learning, the AI model predicted autism with about 75% accuracy.
No clinic. No lengthy evaluation. No months or years of waiting. Just a few minutes of structured observation in a natural environment.
This is incredibly exciting—and it’s just the beginning.
At the same time, there is a growing risk we need to acknowledge.
AI is making information more accessible than ever, but it’s also making it easier to piece together fragmented, reactive advice. Parents can search questions like “what do I do when my child hits me?” or “how do I potty train using Mary Barbera’s approach?” and instantly get answers pulled from blogs, podcasts, and a wide range of sources.
But this is where many families—and even professionals—get stuck.
For over a decade, I’ve been building step-by-step systems, courses, and communities to help children increase talking, decrease tantrums, and improve skills like eating, sleeping, and potty training.
When you pull isolated tips—even good ones—you miss the bigger picture. You end up reacting instead of assessing your child’s unique strengths and needs and then creating and following a clear, individualized plan.
And when children are very young, that often leads to slower progress and missed opportunities during critical developmental windows.
AI can absolutely be part of the solution—but it needs to be used within a clear framework, not as a substitute for one.
We can’t afford to be distracted, scroll for hours on end, or piece things together randomly, especially in toddlers with delays (with or without a diagnosis).
That’s why I’m committed to helping parents and professionals use AI the right way—so it supports progress instead of creating more confusion.
If you are a parent or professional and want to learn my step-by-step system, I invite you to attend a free on-demand workshop where I’ll show you how to start making progress this week.
For the first time, we have the potential to really move beyond simply researching and diagnosing autism to begin understanding developmental trajectories earlier and more precisely.
This is where the real opportunity lies.
In other words, moving from reacting to proactively shaping outcomes.
Because if early outcomes are as changeable as the research suggests—and as many clinicians and parents have seen—then earlier insight combined with better tools could be transformational.
We don’t need to wait for perfect certainty. We need to move toward greater clarity.
And AI, when used thoughtfully, can help us do exactly that.
Closing + Call for Your Input
As I step back and look at these three mega trends—the explosion in rates, the growing confusion, and the rapid emergence of AI-driven breakthroughs—it’s clear that the autism field is at a tipping point.
We cannot keep doing things the same way and expect better outcomes.
At the same time, we need to be thoughtful about what we embrace, what we question, and how we move forward.
I’ve spent the past 25+ years wearing many hats—nurse, parent, behavior analyst, author, and educator—and I have strong opinions about where we go from here. But I don’t believe any one person or discipline has all the answers.
That’s why I want to hear from you.
What did I get right?
What did I miss?
Where do you agree or disagree?
What’s your biggest takeaway or “aha” moment from these trends?
Simply send me an email. We read every response, and would truly love to hear your perspective.
In upcoming newsletters, which I’ll be doing once a month, I’ll be diving deeper into what all of this means and what parents, professionals, and autism leaders can begin doing now to move from confusion to clarity and from waiting to action.
About the Author
Dr. Mary Barbera, RN, BCBA-D is a best-selling author, award-winning speaker, and Board Certified Behavior Analyst with a Ph.D. in leadership. As both an autism mom and professional, Mary brings over 25 years of experience helping thousands of parents and professionals around the world. She is the author of two best-selling books in dozens of languages, including her newest book, Turn Autism Around: An Action Guide for Parents of Young Children with Early Signs of Autism. Through her books, online courses, and podcast, Mary empowers families and professionals to increase talking, reduce tantrums, and improve life skills in young children with autism or signs of autism.