Newsletter #4 – The Crystal Ball Problem
The Crystal Ball Problem
What Lucas and Spencer Taught Me About Waiting, Worrying, & the Inability to Predict the Future.
If someone had handed me a crystal ball in 1998 and let me look into it, I would have seen two little boys, 18 months apart, walking on the beach in their matching plaid overalls.
I would not have been able to tell you which one would go on to need 24/7 care for the rest of his life, and which one would grow up to save lives as a physician.
No one can read a crystal ball. Not me. Not you. Not the most experienced developmental pediatrician in the country.
That’s the hardest truth I’ve had to accept in almost 30 years in the autism world, and it’s the subject of this month’s newsletter.
Two Boys, Same Home, Same Starting Line
Between 18 months and two years of age, Lucas and Spencer looked remarkably similar, although if you read Newsletter 1 or my books, you know that my husband mentioned the possibility of autism when Lucas was 21 months old (shortly after Spencer was born).
But at two, neither of my boys talked much. Both were picky eaters. Both were poor sleepers and required sleeping drives so they would both nap for a little.
Neither one had big tantrums — they were quiet, pretty easygoing toddlers, at least on the surface.
Lucas was addicted to Barney and his pacifier. Spencer was still nursing and didn’t want to stop.
Complicating the situation, Spencer also had chronic ear infections requiring almost constant antibiotics.
It was a confusing and overwhelming time for me but nothing about the picture screamed that one of these boys would be fine and the other would not.
But underneath, their paths were already splitting.
Lucas had regressed sometime after his first birthday — losing words and skills he’d already had. He was diagnosed with a speech delay at two, and moderate-to-severe autism the day before he turned three.
Spencer didn’t talk much at two either, and I was worried he would regress like Lucas did.
But, somewhere around two and a half, something clicked. He started talking in full sentences. He was social. He was gifted. He was the star of the school musicals. He became an Eagle Scout. Today, he’s a physician.
Completely different outcomes.
I’ve written about this before — in Newsletter #2, I said you cannot predict how a toddler is going to do at age 8 or 20. Spencer and Lucas are the proof I live with every single day.
Work Like It All Depends on You
Early in my journey with Lucas, I read Catherine Maurice’s book Let Me Hear Your Voice. One line from it has stayed with me for almost 30 years:
Work like it all depends on you, and pray like it all depends on God.
I come back to that line whenever I feel the weight of not knowing how things will turn out — because here’s the thing: you don’t get to know. I didn’t get to know with Lucas. I didn’t get to know with Spencer. You don’t get to know with your child either.
But not knowing the outcome is not an excuse to wait and see what happens.
It’s the opposite. Because you can’t predict which child will need lifelong care and which one will become the Eagle Scout, the only responsible thing to do is act, right now, as if everything depends on the effort you put in today — and then let go of the outcome you were never going to be able to control anyway.
That’s not being a pessimist. It’s what I would recommend to any parent of a child with autism or delays.
"We Don't Have Two Lucas's"
Not long after Lucas was diagnosed, I sat across from a developmental pediatrician who said something I’ve never forgotten.
He told me, “We don’t have two Lucas’s — one to try approach A with, and one to try approach B with, so we can see which works better.” In other words, I would never get a controlled experiment on my own son. I’d only get one shot, in real time, with no do-over.
Then he warned me: I didn’t have years to wait around for more solid research to catch up.
That was 27 years ago.
And parents today are still being told to wait. Wait for a diagnosis. Wait for a waitlist to open up. Wait to see if it’s “just” a speech delay. Wait to see if he grows out of it.
Even when it isn’t autism — even when it’s “only” a speech delay — waiting is almost always the wrong call. I needed someone to tell me that in 1998. I didn’t have it. That’s the whole reason I’ve spent the last 25+ years building the step-by-step system I wish someone had handed me back then.
Introducing: 5 Weeks to More Talking
Here’s what I know after three decades of doing this work directly with thousands of families:
High-touch coaching works, but it’s hard for a lot of parents to access. It’s application-only, it’s a large financial investment, and the spots are very limited.
Doing it alone doesn’t work. Piecing together tips from Google, ChatGPT, or Facebook groups at 11 p.m. is not a plan. It’s what keeps you stuck instead of taking action.
And I know the question in the back of your mind: where’s the proof that this will work?
I don’t have a randomized controlled trial. Nobody running an early intervention or ABA program in someone’s basement therapy room in 1999 could have run one either — there weren’t two Lucas’s to test it on, remember?
What I have instead is what I’ve built the rest of my career on: 25+ years of working directly with thousands of children, tens of thousands of families trained through my courses, and the same step-by-step framework behind the BECA assessment I told you about last month.
So I built the missing piece — something between “figure it out alone” and “apply for high-touch coaching.”
It’s called 5 Weeks to More Talking, and it’s my brand new program to focus on the one area most parents want to focus on first – talking.
This is the exact step-by-step system I use with families, broken into five weekly lessons you can follow at home, starting the moment you notice a delay — before or after a diagnosis, no waitlist, no insurance co-pays, no waiting to see what happens next.
Cohort 1 starts on August 17th.
I’m running this first cohort live, which means I’ll be there with you as we go, and your questions and results will help me refine the program for every family that comes after you.
Get in now to start gathering materials and preparing for our 5-week implementation program. Go to MaryBarbera.com/5weeks to secure your spot!
You Can't See the Crystal Ball. Act Anyway.
I couldn’t have told you at Lucas and Spencer’s second birthdays which one would need lifelong care and which one would become a doctor. Nobody could have.
That’s exactly why I don’t want you spending the next year the way I spent mine — waiting, hoping, staring at a crystal ball that was never going to show me anything.
Work like it all depends on you. Start today. Let the outcome take care of itself.
If you want to do something new and exciting, I hope to see you in our 5 Weeks to More Talking program. If you want more support or are not sure what you need, fill out this questionnaire and let us know.
As always, I’d love to hear from you about this newsletter — what resonated, what didn’t, and where you are in your own journey. Just reply to this email. We read every one of them.
Until next time,
Mary
About the Author
Dr. Mary Barbera, RN, BCBA-D is a best-selling author, award-winning speaker, and Board Certified Behavior Analyst with a Ph.D. in leadership. As both an autism mom and professional, Mary brings over 25 years of experience helping thousands of parents and professionals around the world. She is the author of two best-selling books in dozens of languages, including her newest book, Turn Autism Around: An Action Guide for Parents of Young Children with Early Signs of Autism. Through her books, online courses, and podcast, Mary empowers families and professionals to increase talking, reduce tantrums, and improve life skills in young children with autism or signs of autism.