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Autism Rates Are Rising: What the 1 in 31 Statistic Means for Parents

  • Autism rates have risen dramatically over time, from approximately 1 in 500 children when Mary Barbera’s son Lucas was diagnosed in the late 1990s to 1 in 31 children in the latest CDC autism prevalence report. While better awareness and screening explain part of the increase, many researchers believe they may not explain the entire trend.

  • The latest CDC report found autism prevalence of 32.2 per 1,000 8-year-old children, or about 1 in 31 children. Boys were about 3.4 times more likely than girls to be identified with autism.

  • Rising autism rates are not just statistics—they represent real families navigating speech delays, therapy decisions, behavioral concerns, school challenges, financial stress, and uncertainty about what to do next.

  • Parents do not need to wait for a formal autism diagnosis before taking action. Early support for communication, social engagement, play, and daily living skills can begin long before a child receives an official diagnosis.

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The 2025 CDC Report: 1 in 31 Children

In April 2025, the CDC released its latest Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network report using data collected from 2022. The report found an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) prevalence of 32.2 per 1,000 8-year-old children, which equals about 1 in 31 children.

That number was up from the previous CDC estimate of 1 in 36 children, continuing the dramatic rise in autism diagnosis rates over time.

It’s important to understand what this number actually means. The CDC is not literally counting every child in the United States. Instead, the ADDM Network tracks autism prevalence among 8-year-old children across 16 monitoring sites and communities throughout the country. The goal is to estimate trends, identify patterns, and better understand how common autism is becoming over time.

Autism Rates in Boys vs. Girls

The latest CDC autism statistics continue to show significant diagnostic differences between boys and girls.

According to the 2025 report:

  • Boys were identified with autism at a rate of 49.2 per 1,000, or roughly 1 in 20.
  • Girls were identified at 14.3 per 1,000, or about 1 in 70.

Overall, boys were approximately 3.4 times more likely than girls to be identified with autism.

However, many experts believe girls may still be underidentified. Autism can sometimes present differently in girls, especially in children who are more verbal or socially motivated. Some girls may mask or camouflage their difficulties, making signs easier to miss or delaying diagnosis until later childhood.

Racial, Ethnic, and Access Shifts

One of the most important findings in the latest CDC report is that autism prevalence was higher among Asian/Pacific Islander, American Indian/Alaska Native, Black, Hispanic, and multiracial children compared with white children.

This represents a major shift from earlier decades, when white children and children from higher-income communities were often more likely to receive an autism diagnosis.

Many researchers don’t think that these children have a biological difference. 

These changes reflect improvements in awareness, screening, access to evaluations, and identification in communities that were previously underserved or underdiagnosed.

At the same time, there are many factors that could impact this.  Some children are still identified later than others depending on things like healthcare access, language barriers, geography, insurance coverage, and school resources.

The encouraging news is that more children who may previously have been overlooked are now being recognized and supported earlier. 

Earlier access to intervention is exactly why I created my online courses for individuals all over the world. 

Where You Live Can Affect Whether Autism Is Identified

The CDC data also showed enormous variation depending on location.

Across ADDM Network sites, autism prevalence ranged from:

  • 9.7 per 1,000 children in Laredo, Texas (about 1 in 103)
    to
  • 53.1 per 1,000 children in California (about 1 in 19)

These differences are unlikely to be explained by biology alone, and may suggest other influences. 

Instead, diagnosis rates are heavily influenced by:

In other words, where a child lives can significantly affect whether autism is identified early—or identified at all.

The Median Age of Autism Diagnosis Is Still Too Late

The CDC also found that the median age of earliest known autism diagnosis was 47 months, just under 4 years old.

That matters because many developmental concerns can appear much earlier, with some kids in my courses being diagnosed between 18-24 months.

In my experience as both a parent and behavior analyst, many children show signs of delays during the toddler years—sometimes well before age two. And while a formal diagnosis can be helpful for accessing services, parents do not need to wait for a diagnosis to begin helping a child learn communication, play, social, and daily living skills.

This is one reason I strongly push back against the “wait and see” approach. Waiting for certainty can delay valuable intervention during critical developmental windows.

And with online courses like mine, there is no reason to sit idle while waiting for a diagnosis or therapy. 

Developmental Disabilities Are Also Common

Autism is only one piece of a much larger picture.

According to CDC data, approximately 1 in 6 children ages 3–17 were diagnosed with a developmental disability during the 2009–2017 study period. That includes conditions such as ADHD, speech and language delays, learning disabilities, intellectual disabilities, and other developmental concerns.

For many families, these challenges overlap. A child may have autism along with speech delays, feeding issues, sensory concerns, ADHD symptoms, sleep difficulties, or learning differences.

No matter the exact label, more parents than ever are navigating developmental concerns and trying to figure out what steps to take next.

You can start here with resources to start helping your child or clients. 

autism rates. autism prevalance.
Graph from Chapter 1 of Turn Autism Around showing the dramatic surge in autism rates from the 1970s to 2020.

Are Autism Rates Really Increasing, or Are We Just Better at Diagnosing It?

This is one of the biggest questions parents and professionals ask when they hear the latest autism statistics.

Are autism rates truly increasing? Or are doctors, schools, and families simply getting better at identifying children who may have been missed in the past?

The honest answer is that both things are likely happening at the same time.

Why Better Diagnosis Explains Part of the Increase

There is no question that awareness of autism has increased dramatically over the past few decades.

Today, parents, pediatricians, teachers, therapists, and childcare providers are much more familiar with early signs of autism than they were when my son Lucas was little in the late 1990s. Developmental screenings are more common, pediatricians are referring children earlier, and many parents are learning about autism signs through social media, podcasts, books, and online resources.

Screening tools and evaluation processes have also improved over time. Children who may once have been labeled as “late talkers,” “quirky,” or simply delayed are now more likely to receive a full evaluation by a qualified professional. 

Reduced stigma has likely played a role as well. Many families are now more willing to seek evaluations and support instead of avoiding labels out of fear or shame. When autism was less prevalent, the diagnosis was far less understood. 

Expanded access to services has also influenced diagnosis rates in some communities. In many areas, an autism diagnosis can help children qualify for therapy, school supports, insurance coverage, and early intervention programs. This makes seeking an evalauation all the more important. 

Another major shift happened in 2013 with the release of the DSM-5. Several previous diagnoses, including Asperger’s syndrome and PDD-NOS, were combined under one broader autism spectrum disorder umbrella. That change likely increased the number of children who now meet criteria for ASD.

Diagnostic Substitution Also Plays a Role

Researchers have also discussed something called diagnostic substitution.

This means that some children who may previously have been classified under intellectual disability, language disorder, or another developmental category are now more likely to receive an autism diagnosis instead. 

As understanding of autism has evolved, diagnostic practices have evolved too. In some cases, the label has changed even when the child’s challenges may have looked similar decades ago.

Why “It’s Only Better Awareness” May Not Fully Explain the Rise

At the same time, many researchers and clinicians do not believe awareness alone fully explains the dramatic rise in autism prevalence over time.

The CDC data continues to show a substantial increase in autism diagnosis rates decade after decade. And importantly, intellectual disability remains common among children identified with autism. Among children with autism who had cognitive ability data available, 39.6% were classified as having an intellectual disability.

That matters because it challenges the idea that rising autism rates are simply due to identifying more “mild” or highly verbal cases.

Some researchers, including Rutgers University researcher Walter Zahorodny, have publicly argued that increased awareness and changing diagnostic definitions likely explain only part of the increase in autism prevalence. Zahorodny and others have suggested the rise appears too large and too consistent over time to be fully explained by diagnostic changes alone. That is one perspective within the broader scientific discussion, not a settled consensus.

The reality is that researchers still do not fully understand all the reasons autism rates have increased so dramatically.

Mary’s Position

After more than 25 years as both a parent and clinician in the autism field, I believe better awareness, improved screening, and broader diagnostic categories absolutely explain part of the increase in autism diagnosis rates.

But personally, I do not believe those factors explain everything.

At the same time, I also believe we should be careful about making overly confident claims about exactly why autism rates are rising. The science is still evolving, and there is a lot we do not yet know.

Most importantly, parents do not need to solve the entire autism prevalence debate before taking action to help their child.

Whether autism rates are increasing because of awareness, biology, environment, diagnostic changes, or some combination of factors, the practical message for families remains the same: if a child is showing delays, concerns, or signs of autism, it makes sense to act early instead of waiting and hoping things improve on their own.

What Rising Autism Rates Mean for Families

Behind every autism statistic is a real child and a real family trying to navigate decisions about communication, behavior, school, therapy, sleep, eating, friendships, and the future.

For many parents, the rising autism prevalence numbers are not just interesting data points. They reflect the growing reality that more families are needing support, services, guidance, and answers. These costs don’t just affect the families living this life, but taxpayers too. This is one of many reasons even those not touched by autism should be paying attention. 

The Financial Cost

The financial impact of autism can be substantial over a child’s lifetime.

Some estimates place the lifetime cost of autism between approximately $1.4 million and $2.4 million per individual, depending partly on the level of support needed and whether intellectual disability is present.

Intensive behavioral interventions can also be expensive. In some cases, comprehensive therapy programs may cost $40,000–$60,000 per child per year, especially when multiple services are involved.

Even for families with insurance coverage, many costs are only partially covered—or not covered at all. Leaving families to pay high costs for necessary therapy, and respite. 

autism rates. cost of autism. autism financial impact
The financial cost of raising a child with autism is staggering. As autism rates increase, and we see more and more the impacts to families the rising cost is more than financial!

The Hidden Costs Parents Actually Feel

But numbers alone do not fully capture what many parents experience day to day.

In my work with families over the past 25+ years, I’ve seen parents piece together support systems however they can. Many families pay out of pocket for therapies, evaluations, and supports that insurance may only partially reimburse.

Children may need speech therapy, occupational therapy, feeding therapy, behavioral support, social skills support, or developmental services. Some families pursue specialized schools or private educational programs because traditional settings are not working for their child.

Parents may hire aides so their child can safely attend camps, childcare programs, or community activities. One parent may reduce work hours—or leave the workforce entirely—to manage appointments, therapy schedules, school meetings, and caregiving responsibilities.

And beyond the financial burden is the emotional weight many families carry:

  • constantly advocating
  • researching therapies
  • coordinating services
  • managing behaviors
  • worrying about the future
  • and trying to make the best decisions possible with incomplete information

If this feels overwhelming, you are not alone. Many families are navigating these same challenges right now.

Progress does not usually happen overnight, and every child’s path will look different. But small, consistent steps—especially during the early years—can lead to meaningful change.

Parents do not need to have all the answers immediately. They just need a starting point, a plan, and the willingness to begin.

Why This Matters If You’re a Parent Right Now

When parents hear statistics like 1 in 31, it’s easy to feel anxious or helpless.

But the most important takeaway is not panic.

The most important takeaway is that early childhood development is more changeable than many people realize—and that early action matters.

Early Outcomes Can Change

One reason I continue to encourage parents to act early is because research increasingly shows that developmental trajectories are not fixed.

A 2023 study published in JAMA Pediatrics followed children who were diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder between 12 and 36 months of age. The children were reassessed again between ages 5 and 7.

At follow-up, 37.1% of the children no longer met criteria for ASD.

This study does not prove that early intervention “cures” autism, and it should not be interpreted that way. But it does support something incredibly important: early childhood development can change significantly over time.

Children benefit from monitoring, support, teaching, and timely intervention during the years when the brain is developing rapidly.

That’s why waiting passively and hoping things improve on their own can be risky and something I would not recommend. 

The Risk of “Wait and See”

I understand the temptation to wait because I lived it myself.

When my husband first suggested that our son Lucas might have autism, I didn’t want to hear it. I hoped he would catch up. I hoped the concerns would disappear with time.

Many parents today are still told things like:

  • “Let’s wait and see.”
  • “He’s just a late talker.”
  • “She’ll grow out of it.”
  • “Boys develop later.”

And while some children do catch up naturally, waiting can also mean losing valuable months—or even years—of learning opportunities during critical developmental windows. There is no harm in using positive, child-friendly methods to ensure we are targeting any delays children have. 

The good news is that parents do not need to wait for a formal autism diagnosis to begin helping their child.

Families can start working on:

Long before an official diagnosis is made.

What Parents Can Do Before a Diagnosis

If you are concerned about your child’s development, there are practical steps you can take now.

Start by:

  • tracking specific concerns and examples of delays
  • talking with your child’s pediatrician
  • requesting developmental screenings or referrals when appropriate
  • seeking speech therapy, occupational therapy, early intervention, or developmental evaluations if recommended

At the same time, parents can begin learning simple, evidence-informed strategies to support communication, engagement, and learning at home using online courses like mine. 

One resource I created to help families get clarity is the Barbera Early Childhood Assessment (BECA)™. The BECA assessment helps parents identify strengths, delays, and areas that may need support across communication, self-care, and problem behaviors.

You can also attend my free workshop, where I walk parents through what signs to look for, what steps to take next, and how to start helping children make meaningful progress.

autism rates. autism study.
In the Turn Autism Around Podcast episode 259, Dr. Mary Barbera outlines the 2023 study, “Persistence of Autism Spectrum Disorder From Early Childhood Through School Age” by Elizabeth Harstad, MD, MPH et al published in JAMA Pediatrics.

Start Here: Take the BECA Assessment

If you are worried about autism, speech delays, tantrums, or developmental concerns, you do not have to panic—and you do not have to wait.

One of the hardest parts for parents is not knowing whether what they are seeing is “serious enough” to act on. That uncertainty can keep families stuck in a cycle of waiting, worrying, and second-guessing themselves.

The BECA assessment was designed to help parents get a clearer picture of their child’s current skills and areas of concern in just a few minutes.

From there, you can begin taking practical next steps—whether that means seeking evaluations, learning parent-led strategies, accessing services, or simply understanding your child’s starting point more clearly.

You can take the free BECA assessment and also attend my free workshop to learn how to support communication, reduce problem behaviors, and help your child reach his or her fullest potential.

Because when it comes to developmental delays and autism concerns, early action is almost always better than waiting and hoping things improve on their own.

FAQ: Autism Rates and What Parents Should Know

Both are likely contributing. Better awareness, broader diagnostic categories, DSM-5 changes, improved screening, and better access to evaluations explain part of the rise in autism diagnosis rates. But some researchers argue these factors may not fully explain the entire trend, especially as CDC autism prevalence has continued to rise over time.

In the latest CDC data, boys were about 3.4 times as likely as girls to be identified with autism. Boys were identified at 49.2 per 1,000, while girls were identified at 14.3 per 1,000. Girls may also be missed or diagnosed later because autism can look different in girls, and some girls learn to mask or camouflage their symptoms.

A 2024 study published in Pediatrics reported that about 20.2% of younger siblings of autistic children were also diagnosed with autism. The risk may be higher in some family patterns, including when there is more than one older autistic sibling or depending on the sex of the first autistic child. 

Lifetime cost estimates for autism are often reported in the range of $1.4 million to $2.4 million, depending partly on whether intellectual disability is present. Intensive behavioral interventions may cost $40,000–$60,000 per child per year. But many parents also feel the hidden costs: out-of-pocket therapies, speech or OT, feeding therapy, private schooling, childcare support, aides for camps or community activities, and one parent reducing hours or leaving work.

No. If you are concerned about your child’s development, you do not need to wait for a formal autism diagnosis to begin helping your child. Parents can start supporting communication, social engagement, behavior, daily routines, play skills, eating, sleeping, and potty training while waiting for evaluations or services.

Start here to start seeing progress this week.

Some children diagnosed very young may not meet criteria later, but this should not be framed as a cure or a guaranteed outcome. A 2023 JAMA Pediatrics study found that 37.1% of children diagnosed with ASD between 12 and 36 months no longer met ASD criteria when reassessed at ages 5–7. This supports the idea that early childhood development is changeable and that children need close monitoring, support, and timely intervention. 

Start by documenting your concerns with specific examples. Talk with your pediatrician, request developmental screening or referrals, and seek evaluation when appropriate. At the same time, start supporting your child now with parent-led strategies at home. You can also take the free BECA assessment and attend my workshop to learn what to do next.

autism rates are rising

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Want to Learn how to Increase Talking & Decrease Tantrums in Children with Autism or Toddlers Showing Signs?

Want to start making a difference for your child or clients?

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About the Author

Dr. Mary Barbera, RN, BCBA-D is a best-selling author, award-winning speaker, and Board Certified Behavior Analyst with a Ph.D. in leadership. As both an autism mom and professional, Mary brings over 25 years of experience helping thousands of parents and professionals around the world. She is the creator of the Turn Autism Around® approach and author of The Verbal Behavior Approach and Turn Autism Around: An Action Guide for Parents of Young Children with Early Signs of Autism. Through her books, online courses, and podcast, Mary empowers families to increase talking, reduce tantrums, and improve life skills in young children with autism or signs of autism.